10 Predictions for the 2014 Legislative Session

Below are predictions about some high-profile issues you will be hearing about during the upcoming 2014 legislative session, listed in order of their probability of passage.

Tax Relief.  I seldom make guarantees, particularly when it comes to what my 200 legislative colleagues will do, but I think it is a very safe bet to say that tax relief legislation will pass in 2014. Aimed at middle-class folks and at job growth, the likelihood of tax relief is ... 99.9%.

"Unsession."  Gov. Dayton and many legislators (including me) have made a concerted, nonpartisan effort over the past several months to find ways to streamline state government and repeal obsolete laws that are still in the statute books. For example, did you know Minnesota still has a telegraph law? At this point, all that old law does is interfere with legitimate communications. It is about time we performed a good housecleaning of the statute books. Odd of passage:  98%.

Job Creation.  Gov. Dayton has put together a $986 million public works proposal for the legislature to consider. It makes a lot of repairs at colleges across the state, fixes roads and bridges, and finishes the Capitol restoration efforts, among other things, creating an estimated 10,000-15,000 jobs. Though likely to be slimmed down in the legislature process, the odds of passage of a jobs bill are... 90%.

Data Privacy.  Lots of proposals to better protect people's privacy have been introduced. Likelihood of passage of a suite of additional privacy protections: 85%.

Minimum Wage Increase.  Expect passage of legislation that raises Minnesota's minimum wage to at least $8.50/hour. Odds of passage: 80%.

Medical Marijuana.  Support for this is growing by the day, but most of the law enforcement community is staunchly opposed, and Gov. Dayton has said he is siding with law enforcement. Odds of passage... 80%. Odds of a veto... ???. (On an unrelated note, has anyone else noticed that the two states that legalized marijuana are sending teams to the Super Bowl?)

Payday Lenders.  An organized coalition of religious and social justice groups are going to press hard for more limits on so-called "payday loans" that they argue take advantage of borrowers. Odds of passage: 75%.

Kill Switch Legislation.  A whopping one-third of robberies now involve smart phone theft. That figure is growing, and the attacks are getting more violent.  Requiring smart phones sold in Minnesota to come with a built-in "kill switch" would enable the owner to completely shut the phone down if it is stolen, protecting private data and making smart phones much less valuable to criminals. Odds of passage of this common-sense law, which I am authoring, are only 55%, because wireless carriers make a lot of money from the sale of insurance for lost and stolen phones, and will be opposing this legislation. 

Wolf Hunt Moratorium.  Both sides are fired up about this issue. Odds of passage: 50%.

Shrinking the Legislature.  I am introducing legislation to significantly reduce the size of the Minnesota legislature, which is the 9th largest in the country.  Yep, for reasons you can probably figure out on your own, this will be a tough one to pass. Odds of passage: 20%.

Now, it's your turn to weigh in. You can always send me an email at rep.joe.atkins@house.mn or give me a call at 651-296-4192. Thank you.